Oil Prices Set for Second Weekly Drop as Trump Maintains Iran Blockade

Oil’s Two-Week Slide Tests the Market’s Read on Supply Risk

Prices are easing, but the threat to Gulf shipping means the retreat is far from a clean signal that supply concerns have passed.

A weekly decline, but no settled view on the conflict

Oil prices were mixed in Friday trading, with Brent nearly unchanged at $95.41 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate down 20 cents, or 0.25%, to $88.52. Both benchmarks were nevertheless on course for a second weekly loss. Brent was set to fall 2.4% over the week and WTI 2.5%, following much steeper declines of 16% and 13%, respectively, in the previous week.

The two-week retreat suggests traders have marked down some of the immediate supply-disruption risk, rather than concluded that the conflict is resolved. Hopes for a US-Iran rapprochement had helped prices recover earlier in the week, but those gains were checked by reports of attacks on Saudi infrastructure and tankers carrying crude from the Gulf.

President Donald Trump’s statement that a deal with Iran was not necessary to end the war pointed to continued enforcement of the blockade and sanctions. That stance may limit expectations of a swift political resolution, even as the lower weekly prices show that markets are not treating a major supply interruption as inevitable.

Hormuz remains the critical supply-risk channel

The Strait of Hormuz is central to the market’s risk calculation because it is a key route for crude exports from major Middle Eastern producers. Any sustained interruption to shipments could change the balance quickly: prices might have to reflect a greater risk of supply constraints, even if the current weekly trend is lower.

Iran’s military said four oil tankers were hit by explosions after ignoring warnings, an account that could not be independently verified at the time. The Houthis also said they attacked a pumping station on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, an oil facility in Yanbu and an Aramco building in Riyadh. These claims add to uncertainty around energy infrastructure and transport, but should not be treated as confirmed evidence of lasting damage or lost supply.

That distinction matters for investors. A reported attack can raise the risk premium in crude prices, but the extent and duration of any actual disruption determine whether the effect persists. With the conflict unresolved and shipping risks still present, sharp price swings remain possible in either direction.

US stock build provides a counterweight

Domestic data offered another reason for prices to soften. US crude inventories increased by 4.7 million barrels to 414.4 million barrels in the week ended November 6, against analysts’ expectations for a 1.1 million-barrel draw. The Energy Information Administration attributed the increase to a jump in oil imports, alongside softer demand for refined products.

The larger-than-expected build indicates that near-term US supply conditions were less tight than analysts had anticipated. It also gives traders a domestic data point to weigh against geopolitical concerns. But one weekly inventory reading does not settle the broader outlook: future figures, product demand and developments affecting Gulf shipments could shift the balance again.

For oil-importing economies and businesses exposed to fuel costs, a sustained decline could ease pressure. That benefit is conditional, however. If shipping disruption escalates, renewed price increases could complicate cost planning and reverse some of the relief signalled by the latest weekly losses.

Key Highlights

• Brent was at $95.41 a barrel and WTI at $88.52 in Friday trading.
• Both benchmarks were on track for a second weekly decline, after larger losses the week before.
• US crude inventories rose by 4.7 million barrels, against expectations for a draw.
• Attacks reported around the Gulf and Saudi Arabia keep supply and shipping risks in focus.
• The market is balancing geopolitical uncertainty against signs of softer US refined-products demand.

Investor Note: The recent price declines may reflect reduced expectations of immediate disruption, not the removal of supply risk. Investors should watch verified developments affecting Gulf shipping alongside US inventory and demand data, and avoid treating a volatile weekly move as a settled trend.