Muhurat Session Opens Samvat 2083 With Gains, but Risks Remain in View
A positive start to the Diwali session met a more complicated backdrop of uneven global cues, volatile commodities and sharply divergent foreign and domestic fund flows.
Indian equities traded higher in the special Muhurat session, with the Sensex up 104.36 points, or 0.13%, at 81,132.38 at 2:29 PM. The opening gains came as investors began Samvat 2083, but intraday weakness in IT and bank shares, alongside concerns about crude prices and foreign selling, kept the outlook measured.
A modest gain marks the new trading year
The special Diwali session began at 2:20 PM, with both the Sensex and Nifty moving higher. By 2:29 PM, the Sensex had added 104.36 points to 81,132.38. However, the live market update also noted that the index had pulled back about 400 points from its session high, while the Nifty was below 25,000. IT and banking shares were cited as weighing on the benchmarks.
The figures describe an intraday session, not a settled direction for the year ahead. Muhurat trading is a short, symbolic market window, so limited price moves should not be treated as a standalone signal of future performance. The gap between the session high and later levels also underlines how quickly sentiment can shift even during a brief trading period.
Domestic buying has absorbed heavy overseas selling
The flow picture from Samvat 2082 highlights an important support for Indian equities. Foreign portfolio investors recorded net selling of ₹4.55 trillion, their highest on record, while domestic institutional investors bought a record ₹8.55 trillion. The domestic purchases more than offset foreign outflows over the period, helping cushion the market from external pressure.
That contrast does not remove the risk of volatility. If overseas investors continue to reduce exposure, domestic institutions may remain an important counterweight, but the scale and consistency of their buying will matter. The reported shift in global portfolios towards AI-focused firms and heightened geopolitical tensions also point to forces beyond Indian company-specific news influencing flows.
Crude and global cues complicate the outlook
Commodity swings were a defining feature of Samvat 2082. Brent crude spot prices rose 60.4% during the period to $97.7 a barrel on Friday evening, amid geopolitical tensions and concerns about supply disruptions. Gold and silver, after record-breaking rallies, surrendered a substantial part of their gains as interest-rate expectations shifted.
For Indian equities, elevated crude prices are a potential source of pressure because they can influence inflation expectations and the broader cost environment. The live update also noted mixed US markets on Friday: the Dow fell 0.5%, while the Nasdaq gained more than 1% and the S&P 500 rose 0.3%. Such divergence offers no single clear cue for domestic investors. Analysts cited geopolitical developments, oil prices and foreign flows as factors likely to shape the next Samvat, while banks and financials remained among their preferred areas.
A record IPO year adds to the market backdrop
The wider equity market also entered the new Samvat after an exceptional period for primary fundraising. Mainboard IPOs raised ₹2.12 trillion during the November 2025-October 2026 period, the highest amount in any comparable 12-month period, according to the supplied market update. The figure reflects substantial issuance activity, although fundraising totals alone do not indicate how individual listings will perform or whether valuations are attractive.
The market’s opening gain, record domestic buying and strong IPO fundraising offer constructive elements, but none erases the uncertainty around crude, overseas flows or global events. For investors, the useful signal from the session may be less the initial index move than the competing forces visible beneath it.
Key Highlights
- The Sensex rose 104.36 points, or 0.13%, to 81,132.38 at 2:29 PM in the Muhurat session.
- The index had retreated about 400 points from its session high, while the Nifty remained below 25,000 in the live update.
- In Samvat 2082, FPIs sold ₹4.55 trillion net, while DIIs bought ₹8.55 trillion net.
- Brent crude spot prices gained 60.4% during the period to $97.7 a barrel on Friday evening.
- Analysts identified geopolitics, crude prices and foreign investor flows as key variables for Samvat 2083.
Investor Note: A positive Muhurat session is a symbolic start, not an investment thesis. Investors may want to assess allocations against their time horizon and risk tolerance, while tracking crude prices, institutional flows and company fundamentals rather than extrapolating a brief market move.
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