Global Stocks Rise as Oil Falls Below $90 on US-Iran Peace Hopes

Lower Oil Prices Lift Global Shares, but Inflation Risks Persist

A retreat in crude eased pressure on equities, though US inflation and interest-rate expectations remain pivotal for markets.

Oil’s retreat gave equities a near-term lift

Brent crude futures fell more than 2% and slipped below $90 a barrel for the first time since late August. The move followed US President Donald Trump’s decision to hold off on new military strikes against Iran, prompting investors to focus on the possibility of peace talks. That prospect supported risk appetite, but it does not amount to a confirmed agreement.

Lower oil can temper concerns about the inflationary pressure associated with energy costs, giving shares some breathing room. The pan-European STOXX 600 gained 0.5%, bringing it within 1% of its record high. The move also helped markets recover after last week’s losses, though the relief may prove sensitive to changes in the geopolitical outlook.

A broad rebound does not erase recent volatility

The gains extended across regions. South Korea’s KOSPI rose 4.4%, Japan’s Nikkei added 2.9% and MSCI’s broadest Asia-Pacific share index climbed 2%, moving away from the seven-month low it reached last week. S&P 500 futures were up 0.1% after the cash index posted its biggest one-day rise since April on Monday; the Nasdaq gained 2.7% that day.

The rebound followed a sell-off that also reflected concern that a sweeping Democratic victory in US midterm elections could bring regulations affecting the durability of the AI trade. That leaves global stocks balancing two distinct forces: relief from cheaper oil and uncertainty over the policy and business conditions shaping technology valuations.

Inflation data could reset rate expectations

US inflation data due later in the day is the next major test for markets. Economists expected prices to have risen at a moderate pace in October, but to remain firm enough to keep the Federal Reserve’s next move in focus. Traders were pricing an 82.2% chance of a rate increase next month, up from 74% a week earlier after a stronger-than-expected October jobs report.

The two-year US Treasury yield, which tends to track expectations for Fed rates, rose 3.3 basis points to 4.58%. A further increase in rate expectations could weigh on the market’s recovery, particularly if inflation data offers little evidence that price pressures are easing. For investors, the contrast between falling oil and persistent inflation concerns is central: one may provide relief, while the other could keep borrowing costs in focus.

AI earnings and Nvidia remain in focus

Technology investors also have company-specific questions to weigh. Earnings due this week from firms including CoreWeave are expected to be closely watched for clues about the cost of AI investment and its profitability. Anthropic’s IPO plans have also drawn attention: details including a proposed raise of nearly $70 billion were briefly circulated to banks and then retracted. The company was expected to formally begin its roadshow on Tuesday, with pricing expected the following week.

Nvidia shares rose 2% in premarket trading after falling 4.3% on Monday, as the company’s board examined whether its chief executive had been targeted by a foreign intelligence operation. Nvidia is also due to report earnings next week. Together, the IPO and earnings developments put investor scrutiny of AI’s funding needs and commercial returns alongside broader macroeconomic risks.

Key Highlights

• Brent crude fell more than 2% and moved below $90 a barrel on hopes of possible US-Iran talks.
• The STOXX 600 gained 0.5%, while major Asian indices recorded stronger advances.
• US inflation data may influence expectations for a possible Fed rate increase next month.
• Investors are monitoring AI earnings, Anthropic’s IPO plans and Nvidia ahead of its results.

Investor Note: The rally reflects improved sentiment, not the resolution of geopolitical or inflation risks. Investors may want to watch whether lower oil prices persist and how US inflation data, rate expectations and upcoming AI-related disclosures shape the durability of the recovery.