Airtel Q2 Preview: Analysts Expect Double-Digit Revenue Growth; ARPU in Focus

Airtel’s Quarterly Test: Can ARPU Keep Pace With Growth?

Subscriber momentum and business-line contributions may support growth, while investors will look for evidence that revenue per user is improving sustainably.

Revenue growth rests on more than wireless

Bharti Airtel is expected to deliver double-digit revenue growth in the September quarter of FY27, with brokerages forecasting a 14–15% increase from a year earlier. The estimates point to contributions from several businesses, rather than wireless alone. Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) cites Homes, Enterprise, Airtel Africa and Indus Towers, while Axis Direct also expects growth from subscriber additions and Africa.

Kotak Institutional Equities forecasts net sales of ₹59,750.2 crore, up 14.5% year on year. Axis Direct estimates revenue of ₹60,061 crore, a 15.2% rise. These projections offer a broad indication of expected momentum, but they are brokerage estimates—not reported results—and reflect differing assumptions.

ARPU is the clearest wireless measure to watch

Average revenue per user, or ARPU, indicates how effectively a telecom operator converts its user base into revenue. Estimates put Airtel’s Q2 ARPU at ₹268–269, compared with ₹264 in the previous quarter. MOFSL expects a sequential increase of about 2%, supported by the partial impact of recent tariff plan revisions and steady subscriber additions.

The expected improvement is modest, and Kotak notes that an additional day in the quarter could partly support the increase. That distinction matters: a higher quarterly figure would be more informative if accompanied by sustained subscriber gains and continuing benefits from tariff changes, rather than calendar effects alone. Brokerages also identify the outlook for ARPU and subscriber additions as important areas to monitor.

Profit forecasts differ; costs could shape the result

The earnings outlook is less uniform than the revenue forecasts. Kotak projects PAT of ₹8,725.1 crore, up 28.5% year on year; MOFSL expects ₹8,880 crore, a 30.8% increase; and Axis Direct estimates ₹10,618 crore, up 19.9%. The spread is a reminder that forecast growth rates alone do not settle what the company will report. Investors will need to compare actual results with each brokerage’s assumptions and examine the drivers of profit.

On operating performance, Kotak sees EBITDA rising 15.5% to ₹34,154 crore, while MOFSL forecasts a 15.7% increase to ₹34,200 crore. Axis Direct expects the EBIT margin to expand 133 basis points year on year to 32.7%, but sees EBIT flat sequentially as data-centre investments and network expansion lift costs. This highlights a key trade-off: investment may support capacity and future business, but near-term expenses can temper sequential operating gains.

The details investors should check

Subscriber additions and the pace of 5G rollout will help investors assess the underlying wireless trend. Kotak expects 2.5 million wireless net additions, excluding M2M, while MOFSL estimates 3 million paying wireless additions and 4 million 4G/5G net additions. MOFSL also expects India wireless revenue and reported EBITDA to grow around 3% sequentially, with an additional day, tariff revisions and subscriber additions contributing.

The results will therefore be judged not only on headline growth, but also on the composition and durability of that growth. Updates across Airtel’s business verticals, ARPU and rollout plans could help clarify whether operating momentum is broad-based and how investment-related costs are evolving.

Key Highlights

• Brokerages forecast Q2FY27 revenue growth of about 14–15% year on year.
• ARPU estimates range from ₹268 to ₹269, against ₹264 in the previous quarter.
• PAT forecasts vary from ₹8,725.1 crore to ₹10,618 crore, reflecting differing brokerage assumptions.
• Kotak and MOFSL expect EBITDA growth of 15.5% and 15.7%, respectively.
• Data-centre and network expansion costs may weigh on sequential operating performance.
• Subscriber additions, tariff effects, business-line outlook and 5G rollout are key monitorables.

Investor Note: These figures are analyst estimates, not company guidance or reported results. Investors may want to focus on actual ARPU and subscriber trends, the sources of revenue growth and whether investment-related costs are affecting operating performance before drawing conclusions from headline forecasts.