Experts See New Samvat Opportunities in Mutual Funds, Equities and Gold

New Samvat Outlook Puts Portfolio Balance Ahead of Market Timing

Experts see potential across equities, mutual funds and gold, but stress discipline and careful allocation amid uncertainty.

The start of a new Samvat brings a familiar challenge for investors: how to participate in India’s long-term growth while managing global uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and market volatility. At a recent investor webinar, market and fund-industry experts identified opportunities across asset classes, but their message was not to chase a single theme. Instead, they urged investors to balance equities, gold and debt, and to keep investment decisions aligned with their risk appetite and time horizon.

SIPs can help investors stay disciplined through volatility

Venkat N Chalasani, chief executive of the Association of Mutual Funds in India, said systematic investment plans have helped make regular investing part of investor behaviour. Continuing contributions when markets fall can allow investors to accumulate more fund units at lower prices. The approach does not remove the risk of market losses, but it can reduce the temptation to make abrupt decisions in response to short-term declines.

Chalasani also pointed to India’s young population and economic growth of around 7.2-7.3 per cent as supports for the long-term outlook. These factors may underpin investment opportunities, but they do not guarantee returns in any particular fund or period. Investors still need to choose schemes and contribution levels that suit their financial goals.

Large companies and diversified equity exposure draw attention

Several speakers saw signs that earnings growth at large companies could improve after a period of weakness. Rahul Singh of Tata Mutual Fund said an acceleration in large-cap profits could support the market, while Jitendra Sriram of Baroda BNP Paribas Mutual Fund noted that domestic investor participation had helped sustain liquidity and partly cushion foreign investor selling.

Valuations were another part of the case for large-cap shares. Jignesh Desai of Centrum Broking said the Nifty’s average valuation over the past 10 years was about 20 times earnings, against roughly 18 times currently. Harendra Kumar of Elara Securities said large-cap stocks could potentially deliver annual returns of around 12 per cent over the long term, while suggesting large- and mid-cap shares together could form 75-80 per cent of an equity portfolio. These were expert views, not assured outcomes; actual returns will depend on company performance and market conditions.

Gold may complement equities, not replace them

Gold was presented as a portfolio diversifier after a recent price decline. Apoorva Sheth of Samco Securities identified $4,000 an ounce as a strong international support level and estimated that prices could reach $4,600 an ounce over the medium term, with further gains possible over three to five years. These are forecasts, and prices may not follow that path.

Sheth suggested a 15-20 per cent allocation to gold. Investors with little or no exposure could consider building a position, while those already adequately invested may find equities relatively more attractive, he said. He also cautioned that silver carries higher volatility and risk. The broader point is to treat gold as one component of an allocation, rather than assume that recent price moves will continue.

Themes and smaller stocks require selectivity

Power, artificial intelligence, manufacturing, renewable energy, financial services and consumption were among the areas identified as potential sources of opportunity. The speakers also highlighted small-cap shares and defence, while urging investors to assess them carefully. A promising sector does not ensure that every company in it will perform well, and enthusiasm for a theme should not substitute for evaluating risk.

Investors considering specialised investment funds should likewise understand their risks before committing money. The webinar’s varied opportunities point to the value of portfolio construction: large-cap and mid-cap equities, gold and debt can play different roles, while exposure to individual themes should reflect an investor’s capacity to tolerate losses.

Key Highlights

• Experts remain constructive on India’s long-term growth outlook despite global uncertainty and volatility.
• Continuing SIPs during market declines can help investors accumulate units, though it does not eliminate investment risk.
• Improving earnings and relatively attractive valuations were cited in support of quality large-cap shares.
• Gold may have a role in a diversified portfolio; one expert suggested an allocation of 15-20 per cent.
• Small-cap stocks, defence themes, silver and specialised investment funds warrant careful risk assessment.

Investor Note: Treat the expert views as perspectives, not promises of returns. Review your asset allocation, investment horizon and ability to withstand losses before changing your portfolio, and avoid concentrating investments in a single market theme.