Brokerages Forecast Up to 27% PAT Growth for Titan, Led by Jewellery

Titan’s Jewellery Momentum Faces a Noisy Quarter-on-Quarter Comparison

Brokerage forecasts point to robust growth, but festive timing and last year’s tax-related base complicate the read-through.

Brokerage estimates indicate a strong quarter

Titan’s Q2FY27 preview points to healthy growth, but the figures remain analyst forecasts rather than reported results. J P Morgan expects revenue to rise 16% year on year to ₹21,631 crore, with EBITDA up 22% to ₹2,279 crore and net profit increasing 20% to ₹1,338 crore.

Motilal Oswal is more optimistic on the headline numbers, projecting consolidated revenue of ₹22,244 crore, an 18.8% increase. It estimates EBITDA at ₹2,325 crore, up 24%, and adjusted profit after tax at ₹1,419 crore, a 26.8% rise. The gap between the forecasts highlights that estimates can vary even when brokerages broadly expect a firm quarter.

Jewellery is expected to lead, with margins in focus

Motilal Oswal expects standalone jewellery revenue, excluding bullion, to grow 28%. It forecasts Tanishq like-to-like growth of 23%, while CaratLane revenue is also expected to increase 28%. These estimates make jewellery the central driver in the preview, rather than growth across the company’s businesses being equally weighted.

The expected revenue momentum does not automatically translate into stronger margins across every segment. Motilal Oswal sees jewellery EBIT margin, excluding bullion and inventory gains, remaining flat at 10.9% year on year. For CaratLane, it expects a 20-basis-point contraction to 10%. Watches, eyewear and other businesses are forecast to deliver healthy double-digit growth, though the preview gives less detail on their individual contribution.

Seasonality and input costs cloud comparisons

The year-on-year numbers may not offer a clean measure of underlying demand. J P Morgan notes that last year’s GST rate cut created a favourable comparison base for discretionary and staples businesses. It also says a shift in festive-season timing has disrupted normal seasonality across jewellery, fashion and beauty and personal care, making comparisons less straightforward.

Input costs are another consideration: J P Morgan expects higher costs to continue pressuring profit margins across its coverage universe. For Titan, investors will therefore be looking beyond sales growth to the reported operating margin and management’s explanation of demand, product mix and cost pressures. The forecasts suggest earnings growth, but the actual results will show how much of the revenue increase flowed through to profit.

The share-price move and broker view

Titan shares rose more than 2% on Wednesday ahead of the results, reaching an intraday high of ₹4,657. At 10:39 a.m., they were trading at ₹4,614.20. The move came against a record of gains across several longer periods, although the stock’s one-month advance trailed the Nifty 50’s rise, according to the figures provided.

Motilal Oswal has a Buy rating and a ₹6,000 target price, which it says implies 32% upside from the cited market price of ₹4,535. J P Morgan has an Overweight rating and includes Titan in its Overweight Consumer Discretionary basket. These are brokerage views, not guarantees of returns; the share’s performance after results will depend in part on how actual numbers compare with expectations.

Key Highlights

• J P Morgan forecasts revenue growth of 16% and net profit growth of 20%.
• Motilal Oswal expects revenue to rise 18.8% and adjusted PAT to grow 26.8%.
• Jewellery is projected to be the key growth engine, with Tanishq like-to-like growth estimated at 23%.
• Jewellery margin is expected to remain flat, while CaratLane’s margin may contract.
• Festive timing and last year’s GST-related base could make year-on-year comparisons unusually difficult.

Investor Note: Treat the brokerage numbers as expectations, not reported performance. When results are available, compare actual growth and margins with both the estimates and the company’s explanation of seasonal and cost factors before drawing conclusions.